Every year, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issue a seasonal outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season. Hurricane season officially begins on June 1 and ends November 30.
2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook: Summary
NOAA’s 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook indicates that a near-normal hurricane season is most likely. The outlook calls for a 45% chance of a near-normal season, a 30% chance of an above-normal season, and a 25% chance of a below-normal season. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico.
This is a more challenging hurricane season outlook than most because it is difficult to determine whether there will be reinforcing or competing climate influences on tropical storm development. The outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during the 2016 hurricane season:
- 10-16 Named Storms, which includes Alex in January • 4-8 Hurricanes, which includes Alex in January • 1-4 Major Hurricanes • Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 65%-140% of the median, which includes Alex in January
The seasonal activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. These ranges do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. These expected ranges are centered near the 1981-2010 seasonal averages of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
Climate Prediction Center: Dr. Gerry Bell, Lead Forecaster, Meteorologist; Gerry.Bell@noaa.gov Dr. Jae Schemm, Meteorologist; Jae.Schemm@noaa.gov National Hurricane Center Eric Blake, Hurricane Specialist; Eric.S.Blake@noaa.gov Todd Kimberlain, Hurricane Specialist; Todd Kimberlain@noaa.gov Dr. Chris Landsea, Meteorologist; Chris.Landsea@noaa.gov Dr. Richard Pasch, Hurricane Specialist; Richard.J.Pasch@noaa.gov Hurricane Research Division Stanley Goldenberg, Meteorologist; Stanley.Goldenberg@noaa.gov